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's not been great so far. it will matter quite a bit whether or not they are able to get a fiscal cliff deal done in the near future. somebody clears the decks to do other things, things that might not be quite as either controversial or may not matter as much to the economy. so if you have a long fight over immigration, that's not a great thing but it's better than having a fight that leads to a debt ceiling default. the question is whether or not they are able to move past this in a way that allows for making agreements going forward or whether or not we end up in the essentially endless series of smaller fiscal cliffs this year. things get pushed forward for two weeks, two months, three months at a time and another debt ceiling in early 2013. if that's the case, there's going to be a lot more uncertainty and the structure will be there a lot more, very angry, a lot more tense, a lot more bitter, 11th hour negotiations going forward. >> mike, what sectors or areas are you watching in 2013? >> i think what's interesting is that the housing revival has obviously been embraced by wall street.
without legislation. everyone assumes the fiscal cliff negotiations are done for the moment. suppose the newfound bears conventional wisdom is wrong. suppose if we don't go over the fiscal cliff or at the very least we get resolved with minimum destruction as i talked about at the top of the show. my super bowl see you in new orleans solution. i'm not saying this will happen. i'm saying this positive scenario is very much on the table. it has to be considered. and in that rosy okay things are all right scenario, good things could happen to our stock market in 2013. let's say you're an optimist that believes the fiscal cliff will be resolved and they rise above. what's the best way to play a fabulous bull market that some think could be unleashed? simple. assuming that everything goes right, the best proxy for the market in 2013 is the blackstone group. the big publicly traded asset firm. why blackstone? a company that i wasn't keen on. the company earns money investing other people's money. private equity funds. at the moment the company has $205 billion in assets under management. t
: if we get it done on the fiscal cliff, will we see a selloff in metals? >> i don't believe that we will. europe right now is the safe haven. there's no negative news. by any means, they are not done with all that's going on over there. everything is focused here on the u.s. and the fiscal cliff, and until that is resolved, if it gets resolved, the traders are pulling back, volatility's high, and there's going to be very thin volume in the markets. it's not going to take much to get gold and silver back up. >> well, back to cindy quickly. if we have a deal, is it bullish for oil? she's already gone. i'll ask doreen, you're with us, aren't you? >> i am. volume, today, by the way, 37% below the three month average. could lead to some volatility, but we have not seen that, have we? >> we have not, but vix is up at 19, a little bit higher. the hope is to get more volume here, otherwise, you know, the fiscal cliff is killing everything. everything. these guys don't get it in washington. i don't know why. i hope they come to their senses soon. ashley: nobody knows why, but i'm tired of saying
holiday. any hope of getting a fiscal cliff deal done in time? we are back after a quick break. and i'm here to tell homeowners that are 62 and older about a great way to live a better retirement. it's called a reverse mortgage. [ male announcer ] call right now to receive your free dvd and booklet with no obligation. it answers questions like how a reverse mortgage works, how much you qualify for, the ways to receive your money, and more. plus, when you call now, you'll get this magnifier with l.e.d. light absolutely free. when you call the experts at one reverse mortgage today, you'll learn the benefits of a government-insured reverse mortgage. it will eliminate your monthly mortgage payments and give you tax-free cash from the equity in your home. and here's the best part -- you still own your home. take control of your retirement today. ♪ ♪ mine was earned off vietnam in 1968. over the south pacific in 1943. i got mine in iraq, 2003. usaa auto insurance is often handed down from generation to generation. because it offers a superior level of protection, and because usaa's comm
tonight on "n.b.r."! washington lawmakers are getting close to a fiscal cliff deal, but they might not get it done before the midnight deadline tonight. the senate could vote in time, but it's possible the house will wait until tuesday. that means the u.s. could go over the fiscal cliff. on wall street today, investors bought up stocks on high hopes of deal, after president obama said this afternoon a deal is "in sight," and positive comments from republican leaders in the senate. here's how e major averagesr closed on this last trading day of 2012. the dow surged 166 points, the nasdaq jumped about 60, and the s&p rose almost 24 points. while wall street has already closed the books on 2012, washington still has a few hours to go before its new year's day fiscal cliff deadline. darren gersh has the latest. >> reporter: after a weekend of late-night negotiations with the vice presidt, senate republican leader mitch mcconnell said an agreement on the fiscal cliff was very, very close. >> we'll continue to work on finding smarter ways to cut spending, but let's not let that hold up protectin
what? if this fiscal cliff thing is done, i'm going to sleep. however, if it isn't dealt with, your taxes are going to go up. your grocery bill might go up too. the deal that could affect milk prices, next. and a new year's message from washington from one of our viewers. >> my new year's message to washington is this. there are not wealthy enough and corporations to keep you in office. in this light, grow up, govern, and most importantly. support middle class policies. am i on this one? no, no, no, no, no. i am on this one. [ male announcer ] for every 2 pounds you lose through diet and exercise alli can help you lose one more by blocking some of the fat you eat. simple. effective. belt-friendly. let's fight fat with alli. learn more, lose more at letsfightfat.com. learn more, lose more are you flo? yes. is this the thing you gave my husband? well, yeah, yes. the "name your price" tool. you tell us the price you want to pay, and we give you a range of options to choose from. careful, though -- that kind of power can go to your head. that explains a lot. yo, buddy! i got thi
and counting until the fiscal cliff free fall. can they possibly get something done? sfx- "sounds of african drum and flute" look who's back. again? it's embarrassing it's embarrassing! we can see you carl. we can totally see you. come on you're better than this...all that prowling around. yeah, you're the king of the jungle. have you thought about going vegan carl? hahaha!! you know folks who save hundreds of dollars by switching to geico sure are happy. how happy are they jimmy? happier than antelope with night-vision goggles. nice! get happy. get geico. fifteen minutes could save you fifteen percent or more. [ dog barking ] ♪ [ female announcer ] life is full of little tests, but your basic paper towel can handle them. especially if that towel is bounty basic. the towel that's durable, and scrubbable. in this lab demo, bounty basic is stronger than the leading bargain brand. everyday life? bring it with bounty basic. the strong but affordable picker-upper... now costs even less. [ male announcer ] as the year counts down, your savings can add up with the adt new year's sale. help protec
this morning's "washington journal." host: our topic is the fiscal cliff. of we have done for last several sundays, we welcome the policy director for the concord coalition and a columnist for roll call newspaper. thank you for coming back. stan, as we stand on the edge of the fiscal cliff, is there any chance we do not go over? guest: we are relying on a senate that has been dysfunctional and avoided a filibuster when it will be really easy for one or more senators who do not like tax increases to just filibuster round and we are relying on a house that could not take the lead. it's important to state that while the official deadline is the 31st, the true this congress can continue to worked until the new congress comes in january 3rd. we have more like three days. host: joshua gordon, are we going over the cliff? what will it mean if we do? guest: in some sense, we will even if they reach a deal. this is something when you look at the contours' of the deal that have been talking about, there will still be a lot left for future decision making. even if they are able to extend taxes for th
about the fiscal cliff. are they happy or sad? and can they rise above to get a deal done? "closing bell" will be back after this break. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 when i'm trading, i'm totally focused. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 and the streetsmart edge trading platform from charles schwab... tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 gives me tools that help me find opportunities more easily. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 i can even access it from the cloud and trade on any computer. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 and with schwab mobile, tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 i can focus on trading anyplace, anytime. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 until i choose to focus on something else. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 all this with no trade minimums. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 and only $8.95 a trade. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 open an account with a $50,000 deposit, tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 and get 6 months commission-free trades. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 call 1-866-294-5412. >>> we're getting ever closer to midnight. ticktock, ticktock. despite encouraging signs, there's still no final fiscal cliff deal. e mamon javers is on capitol hi working the phones. what are you he
of the fiscal cliff. it avoids the worst outcomes. >> in the upper house, the senate, sunday the leadership of both parties is putting together a watered-down deal to assure that taxed on americans making less than $200,000 per year don't go up. the president expressed both sides will have to accept compromise. >> there is a basic fairness at stake in this whole thing that the american people understand and they listened to an entire year's debate about it. they made a clear decision about the approach they prefer, which say balanced, responsible package. they rejected the notion that the economy grows best from the top down. they believe the economy grows best from the middle class out and at a certain point, you know, it is very important for republicans in congress to be willing to say we understand we're not going to get 100%, we are willing to compromise. >> if a deal can get through the democratically controlled senate it will put pressure on the republican-cro -- controlled house to vote it through as well. >> i do understand the politics. the president won. he ran on raising rates a
.s. market has performed very well. by the time we get done today, especially on the fiscal cliff talks, we're going to be up about 14% in the s&p 500. the leaders in that were, of course, financials, tech and consumer discretionary. they performed very, very well. liz: exactly. we just talked banks. we are 22 minutes from thatt3 closing bell ringing. do you have a sense of where we go in the fist three months of 2012 plus or minus -- 2013, rather? >> i wish i could, but i can almost guarantee you this, we're going to have a lot of volatility the first two months because despite whatever deal we get done today if they get something done by midnight or the first two days of the few congress, we've got a bigger discussion that's looming, and that's on the debt ceiling. so you're going to see the republicans, they're going to cave just to keep the tax increases from going up. but they're going to hold that over the democrats' heads when it comes to the debt ceiling. liz: keith, tell the traders from all of us at fox business we wish you a happy new year. >> will do, and the same to you all. li
. no, if you haven't heard there's a thing called the fiscal cliff. it's -- tax hikes and -- spending cuts that will in come on january 1. and they have done nothing to avert this. both parties say a partial agreement is probably the most that can be expected before january 1. here's a look back at some negotiations that we saw and some key developments that no one has risen above. >> the fiscal cliff, yes, it is still loom figure you're wondering. >> i think we could be taken to the brink again. >> the market is responding to the pending fiscal cliff. >> businesses have stopped investing. business has stopped spending. business has stopped hiring. >> nobody knows what's going to happen. there's outlandish guesses on both sides. >> it wouldn't surprise me if we go past january 1. >> you can't tax your way out of this. you can't cut spending your way out of this. you can't grow your way out of this. >> another two million people will lose their job. unemployment will go to 9%. why would we do that? >> president obama is meeting with high-profile officers today -- >> we don't speculate
, waiting for a fiscal cliff deal to get done, if one gets done at all. here with us now, daniel arvis. you could be a partner or president. i remember when you came on and you told us to embrace the fiscal cliff. are you still -- are you still wanting to embrace the fiscal cliff? >> yeah, i am. >> is that a good thing? >> i think we have to step back and think about what we're talking about here. we've gotten so caught up in the minutia and in the language that we've imposed on this whole debate that we forget the fiscal cliff is not some sort of disaster. it was put in place to solve a problem. or at least to create a basis for solving a problem. which is -- >> a basis. not solve a problem. >> which is to reduce the deficit. >> right. >> so the way these policies got into place, the so-called fiscal cliff policies, is congress set itself a sort of backstop and said, look, if we can't do it in a better way, we're going to have these across-the-board tax increases, and spending cuts through sequestration and that's going to allow us to cut the deficit. now what we've reduced to the debate t
.b.r. >> susie: good evening everyone. i'm susie gharib. fiscal cliff talks at the white house end with no deal, but president obama says he's still hopeful and says "we've got to get this done." gold prices pulled back today on worries about the fiscal cliff, will the metal shine in 2013? then cuba, tonight's "market monitor" sees big opportunity on the tiny island when the embargo's lifted. thomas herzfeld, of thomas herzfled advisors joins us. that and more tonight on "n.b.r."! president obama says he's "modestly optimistic" a fiscal deal can be reached in time. he said he's instructed senator harry reid and senator mitch mcconnell to come up with a plan that can pass in congress. his brief comments a short while ago came after a whit
in mind, it's been a pretty good year despite it being an election year, despite the fiscal cliff and ongoing problems in europe. the market has done better than it has usual done. what's changed? i think there will be continued political turmoil and slow growth but that's, particularly given valuations, may not be a bad year for equities as all. >> i'm going to add to that list having been a good year for the stock market. also had a lot of recovery in the housing market as well. do all these good things, all this progress become undone if we go over the fiscal cliff. >> i think clearly we've seen some healing in housing which is great and as has already been said we've seen some good progress over in europe and in china so that's all great. i'm neutral on equities in my allocation strategy fund, target rich funds and the reason for that is the fiscal cliff. if we go over the fiscal cliff then i think that given how lean companies are, and as slow as we're growing, we could see the economy dip back into recession and earnings estimates will have to go lower. >> the mastercard rep
should have acted months ago to keep the u.s. economy going off the fiscal cliff. >> i find it really hard to sit and listen to people come up now and wring their hands and talk about gee whiz. i hope we can get something done on the last day. we put two people together basically to resolve this. >> the two people were senate republican lea leader mitch mcconnell and joe biden who worked the phones after talks between mcconnell and harry reid stalled. >> discussions continue today on plan to affect the middle class families from the tax increase tomorrow. there are a number of issues in which the two sides are still apart. negotiations are continuing as i speak. >> the agreement would set the threshold for extending the bush tax cuts at $400,000 for individuals and $450,000 for families. i would set the tax rate for upper income people at 39.6%. the rate under president clinton. the states would be taxed at 40% above $5 million for individuals and $10 million for a married couple. unemployment benefits would be extented a year, as with the medicare doc fix. it would permanently fix th
can point to a lot of things and one of them being the fiscal cliff, has a lot of the damage been done, brian? >> i think it has. that's a good point and i think what you need to do is put your trader hat on and say i'm going to trade this for a hope rally, but if you're a longer term investor i would use any type of rally to take any profits that i have because i think a lot of damage has been done over the last year. businesses have been paralyzed and now the consumer has been paralyzed. what advice do you have among people trying to invest amidst this uncertainty. >> i think long term they're much more important for factors at work than what happens with this budget deal. >> thank goodness. >>a you will we would do if we went over the cliff from a tax point of view is install the tax structure from the clinton administration. >> we'll show people right now that you like homebuilders and you like retailers, right? put that up. heebner likes retail, home building, what's the third one? automobiles. >> all early-cycle stocks. i like these stocks because the economy is going to be -- ha
. if we can get that done, that takes a big bite out of the fiscal cliff. it avoids the worst outcomes and we're then going to have some tough negotiation necessary terms of how we continue to reduce the deficit, grow the economy, create -- >> but this fight comes back. now, i want to ask you specifically about entitlements, medicare and social security. are you prepared in the first year of your second term to significantly reform those two programs, to go beyond the cuts you've suggested to benefits in medicare, that your own dead commission suggested you would have to do if you were going to shore up medicare at least? are you prepared to do that in your first year of a second term? >> what i've said is i am prepared to do everything i can to make sure that medicare and social security are there not just for this generation and for future generations. >> you have to talk tough to seniors. >> i already have. one of the proposals we made is something called change cpi which basically makes an adjustment in terms of how inflation is calculated on social security, highly unpopular among
in our increasingly sort of frustrating quest to rise above what needs to be done to get a fiscal cliff deal signed, sealed and delivered. but first, an american military hero has died. norman schwarzkopf passed away in florida yesterday. popularly known an stormin' norm norman. he liberated kuwait from saddam hussein. general schwarzkopf was 78. we can see you carl. we can totally see you. come on you're better than this...all that prowling around. yeah, you're the king of the jungle. have you thought about going vegan carl? hahaha!! you know folks who save hundreds of dollars by switching to geico sure are happy. how happy are they jimmy? happier than antelope with night-vision goggles. nice! get happy. get geico. fifteen minutes could save you fifteen percent or more. [ male announcer ] how do you trade? with scottrader streaming quotes, any way you want. fully customize it for your trading process -- from thought to trade, on every screen. and all in real time. which makes it just like having your own trading floor, right at your fingertips. [ rodger ] at scottrade, seven dollar tra
for you. >>> the u.s. is set to go over the fiscal cliff in five days. that means taxes will go up for nearly every american. dramatic spending cuts will kick in. president obama and congress will be back from vacation tomorrow. but will anything get done? >>> plus, wild winter weather sweeping through the country. we'll bring you the latest details on which part of the u.s. could be hit next. cnbc's "worldwide exchange" starts now. >>> and welcome to a special edition of reside worldwide. ross andcle reoff today for boxes day in -- kelly are off today for boxing day. for now, you is us. >> we'll start with a brief check on the markets. energy and metals are trading higher now, wtis up about 55 cents. brent crude up 65 cents. also want to check in on the gold price, as well. gold right now down about slightly under the flat line there, 1,-658. well below the 1,700 mark. the cme globex has been closed for christmas. it's going to reopen at 6:00 a.m. eastern time. that goes for treasuries and the foreign exchange market, as well. >> as for action in the overseas markets, the u.k. is
of all. >> join "mad money"'s training camp weeknights. >> four days left to avoid the fiscal cliff. who will compromise and will a deal get done to rescue the american economy? stay with cnbc for full-time reports to see who will rise above. who will compromise and will a ♪ >> all night i've been talking to you about the new diversification, a way to diversify by strategy, not just sectors so you can thrive in any market. look, we still believe in the old kind of diversification by group, but we've also got a new prism going here. remember, you need a high-yieldner your portfolio, a big dividend-paying stock for downside protection and the massive multi-year gains that come from reinvesting the dividends, and you must reinvest. second, you need a way to profit a whole lot when the market is in good shape. sometimes it is, and still potentially keep delivering gains if things get worse which is why you must have exposure to growth, preferably a high quality secular growth stock where the earnings estimate is a powerful momentum and then a speculative stock, something that trades for le
away before the fiscal cliff deadline, and as many investors scramble to adjust their portfolios, we've got a money manager who says he's got three plays that could yield you 20% no matter what the fiscal cliff resolution ends up being. joining us now is randy warren, warren financial services cio. thanks for joining us. >> nice to be here. thank you. shibani: so right off the top, i would love to know, why is it that etfs you feel can be a little bit more resistant to the waves coming in, the shockwaves coming out of d.c.? >> i think you go for some sectors that aren't necessarily in the crosshairs of what's going on in the house and in the senate right now. so i'm looking at things like the financial sector. it's been beaten down over the last few years. we all know about all the history that's gone on since 2007, 2008, some of the banks failed, some of the big banks failed and also the problems in europe. a lot of the banks had trouble in europe over the last couple of years. they are starting to rebound now. there's an opportunity for improvement in the financial sector. david: i
falling off the fiscal cliff will get us to do the really hard work that needs to be done. >> adam, in the recesses of your most con spear tospicon-- con spespir conspiretorial mind, people are going to lose jobs if we cut government spending and nobody wants to lose jobs. on the other hand they all know, by them, in washington there has to be cuts and it's easier for them, it's the conspiracy talking. >> what's wrong with going over the cliff. >> such wonders and-- >> the world is not going to end. >>, but you and i have jobs and some people will lose them. >> some of them. >> it will force coping to make the hard choices we need to make. david: hold on a second though. the one, the only thing that could raise revenue significantly is growth. i think everybody, republicans and democrats, one thing they agree on is that growth. that could increase revenue by hundreds of billions, not just tens of billions, and if everybody gets a tax increase, shibani, will likely go into recession in any we'll have negative growth and that will mean even worse of a deficit. >> if you start to cut
something done so we'll be on fiscal cliff watch on fast money. hopefully we'll have a deal to talk about. it's also about 2013 trades. predictions on the commodity front. top trade in the internet space. all of our traders will be prepared to give their top trades, as well. and of course we have broadcasting tonight in times square, heart of the biggest party in the universe. >> good luck getting home. >> really. >> have a great new year. >> thank you. you, too. >> we'll see you in 2013. here's what you missed if you're just tuning in. >>> welcome to hour three of "squawk on the street." here's what's happening so far. >> the real question is whether or not the president will weigh in and push the democrats in the senate to move forward with a bill today. if that happens, then i think that we can solve this current challenge. >> we ought to be concentrating on how to get government out of the way. get them off the back of small and medium sized businesses, even large corporations. let our economy grow. >> the economy is an incredible ability to self heal itself, but why want to take that
to start grappling with the idea that even if we go over the fiscal cliff and people start negotiating more intensively, how realistic is that if they couldn't get the deal done in the last six weeks and that they will get it done in the next six weeks? we're looking at a lot of market uncertainty. >> it's clear, too, that it takes that pressure, whether it's pressure in terms of the calendar or form of the markets that takes lawmakers to compromise. we've had calendar pressure. we haven't had as much market pressure maybe because we've had a view that it's going to be okay. but we're starting to hear from guests on the program, allen capper saying, look, as it appears, we're not going to get what we hoped for. it could be a bit of an ugly trade come january. >> you know, i have to agree with that. i'm surprised that we haven't seen more of that sentiment showing up in markets to date. maybe because it's that thin holiday period. but even if you go back to august of 2011 when we came so close to a technical default on federal obligations win it didn't find its way to the markets until a few
? >> oh, absolutely. if the fiscal cliff, if we go off of it, i think we will see crude oil prices come down substantially. my thought is though if we don't do that, if we have a short-term fix, that you will see a lot of hot money come back into the market and park itself in commodities and oil is always a favorite. so if you're rooting for the fiscal cliff, you might be rooting for lower gas prices, but you're probably rooting for lower unemployment, you know, lower income and a lot of other things as well. dagen: tom, if you're rooting for the giants, i know it was a rough day, but if it makes you feel any better, if you're a jets fan, they're a whole lot worse. >> they do. it is time to adopt a team. i think i'm going to go with the packers this year. dagen: i have always stayed sort of loyal to the redskins. they are having a good year so i don't have to be ashamed. i can just pull out my redskins sweatshirt instead of wearing my jets sweatshirt. >> as long as the cowboys lose, all is right with the world. dagen: amen brother. thank you tom. >> take care, merry christmas. >> thanks
senators, our president not to take this over the fiscal cliff, but get something done and take care of us in a sensible way instead of waiting to the last minute on all these different issues. thank you for my time. host: thank you. another comment on our #fiscalcliff, "congress is so incompetent, i hope everyone is so happy about who they voted for in november." the 112 congress will be wrapping up this week. the 113th congress will be in on january 3. we have a number of news reports of. this is about what is going on behind the scene. senator tom harkin weighing in on this on the senate floor. >> i was disturbed to read in the washington post this morning that some kind of agreements are being made here, somehow that democrats have agreed to raise the level from two lenders $50,000 to $450,000 -- from $250,000 to $450,000 and there was an agreement reached that we keep the estate taxes at the $5 million level at 35%. all i can say is, democrats do not agree with that. not at all. what it looks like is it looks like all of the tax things will be made permanent, but all of the things tha
spending, what do you do? >> set the fiscal cliff aside for one moment. you've done extensive research on recovery from recessions. where are we in the current recovery? what in your estimation does 2013 look like from an economic standpoint. >> fairly normal from world war ii financial crisis, housing recovers on cue five or six years later. the good news is that there's stable underlying growth. the bad news is you don't get the zoom you got out of it during the depression. >> we're in year five of a seven year process. >> more than seven years. >> last time you were here you said we were half way through regardless of who wins in 2012. the next four years would not look much better than the past four years. >> we're going to have, i don't know if not very much better than the past four but we're not going to have fantastic growth. unemployment will take many more years to feel normal, so we have many years left in the recovery but hopefully in two or three years we feel like we're moving there and not at the starting point. >> let's talk about the global picture here. you have slow
cliff deadline is upon us. it doesn't look like lawmakers in washington will get a deal done by midnight tonight. eamon javers is at the capitol now. where do things stand? >> hey, bill. let me give you an update. right now behind closed doors republicans are meeting. we should get a better sense of where their heads are when that breaks up. started about 4:30. then at the top of the hour republicans on the house side are going to have their conference meeting down in the basement here. we'll go downstairs and try to stake sthem out and get a sense of what their reaction is to all of this. meanwhile i wanted to point out to you one interesting notation here. this is the house republican whip floor update. it's been updated. it says members are advised to stay close to the capitol tonight should any additional votes arise. now, presumably that means the potential of a fiscal cliff vote. they want to keep members at least in the physical proximity of the capitol building here on new year's eve tonight just in case they might vote. earlier today we saw a big tone change after the president
alternative to what happens if we go over the fiscal cliff. true, from the very beginning i have favored a comprehensive solution to put our fiscal house in orderings something along the lines of the simpson-bowles. we don't have that luxury right now. but perhaps it will only soften the blow of the fiscal cliff but also give us a sense of urgency about a grand bargain to repair our financial house. i am not so naive aso believe everybody is going to check their politics at the door, even at this late hour, but this is not a time for politicking, bicking or partisan games. to allow the country to plunge over the fiscal cliff without any alternative plans to soften the landings completely unacceptable. i can't think of anything more irresponsible than to let this great country go over the fiscal cliff, to play games with the lives of americans in such a callous way, to jeopardize the financial standing of our country and to alarm our financial narcotics ways that could trigger another recession. something has gone terribly wrong when the biggest threat to the american economy is the ameri
to see. people are really, really tied into the fiscal cliff and worries about washington. if you thought and you questioned it, you shouldn't because the minute that headline broke, look at that market. that's the best we've done. all day long basically since 10:00 a.m.. let's move onto the retailers, all right? i got that out of the way. i really wanted to see because even i began to wonder how tied in are the markets at this time during a holiday week and it showed you. here are the retailers. do-or-die in 2013. according to "the wall street journal" these four names are names to watch. of course we've seen jcpenney, change in management. best buy, will the chairman take over the whole thing? radioshack struggling in electronics. sears, another name right now is to the downside. these are names we will continue to watch and follow closely in 2013. back to you. ashley: very good indeed. thank you very much, nicole. harry reid tanking the markets earlier. but as you say they're talking again maybe in the house on sunday night. so it goes. my next guest has been the head of the nonprofit
in this instance with the fiscal cliff, the consumer discretionaries. the restaurant stocks have done well. the retailers have done well. they could easily re-rate, in other words, correct, partly because consumers could rein in, and we could be seeing that now, we may not, or partly because wall street fears they would rein in. can you see consumer discretion as being vulnerable at this position now? >> consumer discretionary has been the best performing sector since the market bottomed in 2009. if there is a sector that could be in line for a re-writing, as you say, that's probably it. i think the most prudent way to look at the market today is to focus on sectors that have good dividend yields, good valuation and potential for revenue growth. health care and technology both fit that particular area. and i think those are the areas that, from a prudent perspective, might be the best place to make your bets for 2013. >> charles, where would you begin the new year? i know you're looking at value tech names, leapfrogging off of what david just said. you make the point that dell -- i'm using
. the senior commodities broth brother -- broker. how is oil dependent on fiscal cliff deal or no deal? >> well, i think that's the biggest short-term burden that crude oil and most of the commodities have right now. the biggest factor is if no deal is done by year end, the possibility of the u.s. slipping into a recession in the first half, greatly increases significantly. if that does that, you can see crude oil prices back off to that short-term support right around 86. i think overhead we're met with about a 91 resistance. the volume and also the participants in the market are going to be significantly less as a result of these fiscal cliff worries. >> we're going to sort of trend right around here -- it doesn't look like we're going to get a deal before year end of any great significance. that being said, we may get one last year. do we trade in line right here? >> so we're going to trade probably 91 on the upside, 86 on the low side. i think once a deal is done, you're going to see a reemergence of a risk-on rally. i think that's where crude oil breaks out to the upside. we start to get a
now a potential agreement to keep us from falling off the fiscal cliff. jessica yellen at the white house with some details. what are you learning? >> reporter: hi, suzanne. first of all, there is an emerging deal here, but it is still not done. it is in progress. there's a sense of sort of optimism that this will come to closu closure. what we know about this deal right now is that it would allow for earners at the very top to let their tax rates go back to clinton levels. so that is what was set to happen in the new year anyway. it only hits the very top earners. then the next level of the deal, households that earn $450,000 are the ones impacted by this. individuals who earn $400,000 a year are the ones who would see it go to clinton levels. the deal -- the emerging deal would also include as i understand an extension of unemployment benefits and a compromise on the estate tax that would allow a slight increase or something of an increase from where we are now but not an absolute jump to where it would be beginning tomorrow. now, if there were no deal. the big sticking point as d
their fear of gun violence than the fiscal cliff. it's completely different situation when you have little children killed and the public is asking if not insisting, that something be done so it doesn't happen again. >> does something get done? >> i know these people in washington, some of them may be watching now. they don't talk to each other, they don't have dialogue or conversations. this system in dc and the american people voted for it they voted for the president, they voted to reelect republicans in the house, there is no compromise and i think that will grow as a concern among the public. >> frank, what do you make of the nra strategy here that there should be someone in every school system in america holding a gun and protecting the kids. >> that's not quite the language they used and if they did i would be more opposed today it the public wants guns out of the schools, not in the schools. i don't think the nra is listening. i don't think they understand. most persons would protect the second amendment rights and yet agree with the idea that not every human
. >>> the tedline for the fiscal cliff is now just four days away. >>> the president has not laid out a specific plan to deal with this. congress could have done the same. i think the american people should be disgusted. >>> the commander of operation desert storm died from complications of pneumonia. >> the more you sweat in peace, the less you bleed in war. >>> the powerful storm moving cross the country is finally moving out. >> although it's not major system it's going to cause problems for tomorrow. >> less than a few days. the longshoremen and the shipping companies are at an impasse. >> this is in real-time. >> real-time. >> is that a ring tone? what ring tone was that? >> i have "dancing queen" is my general ring tone for most people and then my wife's is "super trooper." >>> i'm rebecca jarvis with jeff glor. charlie, gayle, and norah are off. >>> the fiscal cliff negotiations are down to the wire and this afternoon president obama meets with congressional leaders to try to come to terms on a compromised plan. major garrett is at the white house. major, good morning. >> good morning, re
be done to help protect assets, primarily from the tax consequences of going over the fiscal cliff? at the top of our short list, there's still time to take advantage of the gift tax. right now there's a $5 million exemption and the tax rate is 35%. at midnight on new year's eve, that exemption drops to just $1 million and the tax rate goes to 55%. the capital gains tax rate, of course, is expected to increase from 20 to 30%. there's brand-new 3.9% medicare tax on high wage earners and a tax for wealthy donations. primarily between house republicans and the obama white house in the senate. but a survey done by northern trust of high net worth individuals' priorities found 44% saying their top priority for the country is economic growth and reducing unemployment versus 19% for reducing the federal budget deficit. another 15% said they wanted to see an end to gridlock. good luck. now, as far as their own wealth preservation strategies. that same survey found high net worth persons, those with $5 million or more in assets, obviously much more proactive in anticipating the tax conseque
. the talks are aimed at preventing us from going over the fiscal cliff and they are not making a lot of progress. the two sides are talking, and that is the good news. that is the best that can be said for what is happening on capitol hill. if you wished that the deadline would push the democrats and the republicans to get to a deal, we are still, don, waiting for that to happen. i suspect that i have a better chance of growing hair than we have of getting a deal tonight. >> yes, probably. i mean -- [ laughter ] -- you are right, pretty pictures, and that is about it at this point, and nothing pretty is happening right now, because, ali, in less than 30 hours before we go over the fiscal cliff, and it is not clear whether a last-minute deal is even possible or whether this is going to be all about shifting blame. i want you to listen to senate majority leader harry reid. >> with 36 hours left until the country goes over the cliff, i remain hopeful and realistic about the prospects of reaching a bipartisan agreement, and at some point in the negotiating process, it is obvious when the
a favorable path towards achieving the fiscal cliff? guest: a $1 trillion budget deficit we have been running annually, that is unsustainable. something needs to be addressed. the shrinking of the time. we have, one has to get something done quickly and then a grand bargain as to get done in the springtime to fundamentally address the long- term budget deficit. but we have to get over the short-term obstacle. we're not looking for any specifics related to whether it should be government spending cuts, tax increases, but one thing we are very mindful of is that some politicians have been discussing a mortgage interest deduction as a revenue source. we are opposed to that. 7500 homeowners will be impacted by that. we are aware of that being on the table. host: when you talk of a grand bargain later on, if you are looking at the short term fix and then a grand bargain later on, the mortgage interest deduction could go away. would the realtors fight that deduction? guest: i don't think it will go away. it always comes on the table every decade or so. it's been in place a hundred years. we have to
we'll go over the fiscal cliff and the inaction of congress has the potential of plunging the united states into another recession. that said, they can't afford to becoming a reality. >> so far they have been very fortunate that the markets have not reacted with panic. you have not seen any plunge on wall street and the like but once you go over the cliff, especially if it is not just a matter of a day or two to allow for a house vote, but if it is really the case that politicians here in washington are so dysfunctional, kelly, they can not get the people's business done, i think then you will see a market reaction that, as you describe it, could plunge the country back into recession and it is not just the united states. remember, we're the world leader in terms of so much when it comes to the economy. it could cause worldwide implications. europe already is on the verge of trouble. to have the united states go off the edge would be catastrophic, for the world, for the global economy. kelly: juan, i was talking to a very good friend of mind who lives here in the united states. he is
away from the fiscal cliff negotiations? >> there seems to be some politics behind this announcement right now as we hit the ceiling. as you make the calculations, it seemed to me as if they were only going to hit the ceiling in february or march next year anyway. the fact that he comes out and says actually we're shutting the ceiling now and i have to make all these adjustments so we hit only in february seems to me that there is a bit of politics going on already and trying to increase the pressure on the republicans to agree at the year end. >> i wonder how much is priced into the markets. despite the fact that we're going partially over the cliff or doing the coyote/roadrunner thing in the air, i'm just not sure that we are necessarily going to see a huge move. among other things, it seems the market is tired of the political wrangling'. >> indeed. i think what is priced in is that this is priced in at a slope. it's something that's going accumulate over the year and is going to hit the gdp if it really hits over the course of the whole year, not all in january. it's not going to
the same. t.a.r.p. was about some real issues. fiscal cliff is about being afraid, i think. >> let's do the numbers. >> 350,000 on initial jobless claims. that is definitely less than we were looking for. it's a dozen less than the revised number you're looking at last week. 3.206 million on continuing claims. and just to put a face on it, 350,000. when was the last time we had 350,000? well, let's see, we had 344,000 on pearl harbor day. this is probably a level that we should pay attention to. it's like logically important, that it's going to give us any clues as to how many jobs we're going to create on any first friday. i think that information line is broken. let's get back to that other conversation now. let's go with it. you know, the issue with t.a.r.p. was, yes, there were things that were freezing up. that responsibility adults had to come and do something, and i remember not agreeing with maria bartiromo at the time because everybody was disappointed they didn't hurry up to write a check for seven eighths of a trillion dollars without any thought. so i thought that was the ne
to avert the fiscal cliff. democrats are ready to work and, yes, ready to compromise. we understand we will not get it all our way. the legislative process is about compromise, democracy is about compromise. we have not done much of that this year, and frankly that house has been an extraordinarily pardontisan house where we passed legislation after legislation which the leadership knew it would not be adopted by the senate and the president would veto it. that has not been a constructive experience for the house or constructive experience for america. dayould hope the speaker to would call the house back into session to address these serious challenges confronting our country and giving confidence to our people, that their government is at work, that their government can work, and that their government will work. thank you very much. questions? yes. >> did you get a communication from the majority leader that they would be coming back? >> they would be discussing it today. i know they are discussing that issue. very frankly, the house has to initiate revenue bills. the house failed to
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